Projects capital ratios over multiple quarters under stress scenarios (e.g., CCAR, DFAST, or custom adverse scenarios). Simulates the evolution of capital and RWA by applying quarterly earnings, credit/market losses, and RWA changes. Formula for each quarter: Capital_t = Capital_(t-1) + Earnings_t - Losses_t; RWA_t = RWA_(t-1) + RWA_Change_t; Ratio_t = Capital_t / RWA_t. Returns time series of capital ratios and identifies the minimum ratio during the stress period. Tests whether minimum ratio exceeds regulatory threshold (4.5% for CET1). Use this for regulatory stress testing, capital planning, ICAAP, and board presentations.
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Starting CET1 capital at beginning of stress period
85000000
Starting risk-weighted assets at beginning of stress period
950000000
Projected quarterly earnings (pre-provision net revenue) for each quarter of stress scenario
[
8000000,
7000000,
6000000,
5000000,
6000000,
7000000,
8000000,
9000000
]Projected quarterly credit/market losses (provisions, write-downs) for each quarter
[
12000000,
15000000,
18000000,
20000000,
15000000,
10000000,
8000000,
5000000
]Quarterly changes in RWA (can be negative if assets decrease or credit quality improves)
[
20000000,
25000000,
30000000,
15000000,
0,
-10000000,
-15000000,
-20000000
]