> ## Documentation Index
> Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://docs.fincept.in/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.

# Exponential smoothing and Theta

> Automatic ETS state-space models, Holt and Holt-Winters, simple and seasonal exponential smoothing, complex exponential smoothing, and the standard, optimized and dynamic Theta methods: smoothing weights, damping, initial states, AIC/AICc/BIC and forecasts with intervals.

Toolset `tsforecast_smoothing`: 2 tools.

| Tool | What it does | Notes |
| - | - | - |
| `tsforecast_ets` | Fits exponential-smoothing models to one series (y) or every series of a panel (data): automatic ETS (error/trend/season components and damping chosen by AICc, or given as e.g. MAM), Holt, Holt-Winters, simple and seasonal exponential smoothing (given or fitted alpha) and complex exponential smoothing. | |
| `tsforecast_theta` | Fits Theta-method models to one series (y) or every series of a panel (data): standard Theta (theta = 2), optimized Theta, the dynamic variants and AutoTheta (best of the four by in-sample error), after a classical multiplicative or additive deseasonalization when the series is seasonal. | |

Inputs, limits and outputs are described in [Fincept TS Forecast](/guides/fincept-ts-forecast). Full schemas: `fincept_describe_tool`.


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